Hillary Clinton apparently closer to middle than Obama in minds of York County Dems
Hundreds crowded the intersection of Beaver and West Market streets to see Hillary Clinton the Saturday before the primary. Background posts: Why did JFK lose to Richard Nixon, Historians, journalists benefit from work of their forebears and People still remember Hillary Clinton’s first York visit.
What does Democrat Hillary Clinton’s win in York County primary voting say about county voters?
If you believe the conclusions of York County researchers, one could contend that Clinton did a better job of seizing the middle in the minds of local voters… .
Hillary Clinton at the microphone.
Professors G.A. Mellander and Carl E. Hatch looked at presidential voting patterns from 1796 to 1972.
They concluded:
1. Yorkers vote against presidential candidates who are inordinately idealistic and not practical.
2. Yorkers vote for presidential candidates who strike a happy medium between the extremes of too much laissez-faireism and too much federal intervention into local affairs.
“All of which explodes the myth that York County is a region of rock-ribbed conservatism and reactionaryism,” their study concludes. “On the contrary, voting statistics over the years show that York County has been a consistently moderate political unit.”
Of course, the study goes only through 1968, and the county has voted consistently Republican ever since. But the two times Democratic candidates have been the closest – Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1996 – they were viewed as somewhat moderate candidates. (See chart below).
So this is the view at 11:30 p.m. on election night: Relative newcomer Barack Obama might be viewed as overly idealistic. The better-known Clinton might have received props from the practical results – particularly in the handling of the economy – of her husband’s presidency.
How either would do against moderate Republican John McCain in a still-heavily Republican York County is another post for another day.
The following chart shows presidential voting since 1796.
The professors point to numerous examples to match their model of moderate York County voting. Exhibit A would be 1964 when Barry Goldwater, viewed as an extreme Republican, was trounced by the less dogmatic Lyndon Johnson. (See the post Why did JFK lose to Richard Nixon for other examples.)
The popular vote in York County for president of the United States, 1796-2004.
DEMOCRATIC LINEAGE – REPUBLICAN LINEAGE
1796 141 (Jefferson, Repub.) – 3,222 (Adams, Fed’list) –
1800 No popular vote
1804 942 (Jefferson, Repub.) – 60 (Pinckney,Fed’list)
1808 1,810 (Jefferson, Repub.) – 167 (Pinckney,Fed’list)
1812 2,090 (Madison, Jeff, Dem.) – 1,407 (Clinton, Fed’list)
1816 980 (Monroe, Jeff, Dem.) – 318 (King, Fed’list)
1824 846 (Jackson, Jeff, Dem.) – 328 (Adams, D-Rep.)
1828 3,645 (Jackson, Dem) – 1,864 (Adams, Nat-Rep.)
1932 3,152 (Jackson, Dem.) – 1,451 (Wirt, Anti-Mason)
1836 2,756 (Van Buren, Dem.) – 2,005 (Harrison, Whig)
1840 4,382 (Van Buren, Dem.) – 3,792 (Harrison, Whig)
1844 5,071 (Polk, Dem.) – 4,237 (Clay, Whig)
1848 5,151 (Cass, Dem.) – 4,838 (Taylor, Whig)
1852 5,585 (Pierce, Dem.) – 4,700 (Scott, Whig)
1856 6,876 (Buchanan, Dem.) – 4,301 (Fillmore, Amer.)
1860 5,497 (Reading Ticket) – 5,128 (Lincoln, Repub.)
562 (Douglas, Dem.) –
574 (Bell, Const’l Union) –
1864 7,875 (McClellan, Dem.) – 4,696 (Lincoln, Repub.)
1868 9,094 (Seymour, Dem.) – 6,449 (Grant, Repub.)
1872 6,753 (Greelely, Dem.) – 6,299 (Grant, Repub.)
1876 10,400 (Tilden, Dem.) – 6,826 (Hayes, Repub.)
1880 11,582 (Hancock, Dem.) – 7,870 (Garfield, Repub.)
1884 11,561 (Cleveland, Dem.) – 7,949 (Blaine, Repub.)
1888 11,526 (Cleveland, Dem.) – 8,251 (Harrison, Repub.)
1892 10,946 (Cleveland, Dem.) – 7,561 (Harrison, Repub.)
1896 12,009 (Bryan, Dem.) – 11,842 (McKinley, Repub.)
1900 13,738 (Bryan, Dem.) – 12,155 (McKinley, Repub.)
1904 12,979 (Parker, Dem.) – 14,953 (Roosevelt, Repub.)
1908 15,173 (Bryan, Dem.) – 14,661 (Taft, Repub.)
1912 15,105 (Wilson, Dem.) – 5,224 (Taft, Repub.)
– 4,592 (Roosevelt, Prog.)
1916 15,851 (Wilson, Dem.) – 11,775 (Hughes, Repub.)
1920 14,342 (Cox, Dem.) – 19,885 (Harding, Repub.)
1924 15,603 (Davis, Dem.) – 22,964 (Coolidge, Repub.)
1928 11,118 (Smith, Dem.) – 45,362 (Hoover, Repub.)
1932 29,341 (Roosevelt, Dem.) – 25,123 (Hoover, Repub.)
1936 45,171 (Roosevelt, Dem.) – 29,565 (Landon, Repub.)
1940 39,507 (Roosevelt, Dem.) – 30,323 (Wilkie, Repub.)
1944 35,954 (Roosevelt, Dem.) – 30,915 (Dewey, Repub.)
1948 33,110 (Truman, Dem.) – 32,501 (Dewey, Repub.)
1952 39,288 (Stevenson, Dem.) – 44,068 (Eisenhower, Repub.)
1956 37,848 (Stevenson, Dem.) – 47,057 (Eisenhower, Repub.)
1960 38,710 (Kennedy, Dem.) – 55,109 (Nixon, Repub.)
1964 57,366 (Johnson, Dem.) – 32,846 (Goldwater, Repub.)
1968 32,636 (Humphrey, Dem.) – 50,148 (Nixon, Repub.)
1972 27,520 (McGovern, Dem.) – 63,606 (Nixon, Repub.)
1976 41,281 (Carter, Dem.) – 56,912 (Ford, Repub.)
1980 33,406 (Carter, Dem.) – 61,098 (Reagan, Repub.)
1984 33,359 (Mondale, Dem.) – 75,020 (Reagan, Repub.)
1988 37,691 (Dukakis, Dem.) – 72,408 (Bush, Repub.)
1992 46,113 (Clinton, Dem.) – 60,130 (Bush, Repub.)
1996 49,596 (Clinton, Dem.) – 65,188 (Dole, Repub.)
2000 51,958 (Gore, Dem.) – 87,652 (Bush, Repub.)
2004 63,701 (Kerry, Dem.) – 114,270 (Bush, Repub.)
Sources: Wilkes University Election Statistics Project, Election Statistics: 1682-2006; G.A. Mellander and Carl E. Hatch, York County’s Presidential Elections.
To see additional primary night posts, see Tom Joyce’s Articles of Confabulation and Mike Argento’s Mike’s Front Stoop.
Hillary Clinton on the platform at Market and Beaver.
